Article
Generative AI and Formal Deductive Planning for Port-City Transformation: A Wild Scenario Methodology Applied to Cork 2050
Abstract
Port cities face planning horizons that conventional frameworks, anchored in present conditions and insufficiently imaginative, are ill-equipped to navigate. This paper develops and demonstrates the artificial intelligence (AI)-driven wild scenario planning with formal deductive implementation (AWSPFD) framework, integrating generative AI scenario generation with Horn clause-based formal planning to bridge visionary urban futures and implementable strategic plans. Drawing on Scenario Planning for Marketing Action (SPMA), service-dominant (S-D) logic, and a Gedanken thought-experiment methodology, we apply ChatGPT-4o to generate wild scenarios for Cork City and Port for 2050, formalise a composite scenario through Horn clauses, and operationalize via a Python Datalog inference engine. The methodology yields a composite scenario—'Cork 2050: Nexus of Innovation and Sustainability'—positioning Cork as a global Brainport, integrating renewable energy, AI-driven logistics, spaceport capability, and knowledge-economy institutions. Formal planning demonstrates five of seven scenario goals are logically achievable given current Cork assets, and identifies precise enabling conditions for the remaining two. AWSPFD is among the first applications of Horn clause-based formal planning to AI-generated urban futures, offering port authorities, urban planners, and policymakers a generalisable tool for translating visionary scenarios into actionable implementation pathways (In this paper, "logically achievable" denotes that the Horn clause dependency chain is satisfiable under the defined knowledge base—not that practical, political, or financial feasibility is guaranteed). This study presents a methodological proof-of-concept; empirical validation through primary data collection and stakeholder engagement is identified as a necessary and planned subsequent phase.
Keywords
Urban Planning,Generative AI,Scenario Planning,Brainport,Port-City Transformation,Horn Clauses,Service-Dominant Logic,Cork 2050