Bioeconomic Policy Pathways for Structural Transformation in India: An E3 (Economy–Environment–Employment) Framework for 2050

The growing need to reconcile economic growth with environmental sustainability and employment generation has positioned the bioeconomy as a central pathway for long-term structural transformation. However, existing research has largely examined economic, environmental, and labour-market dimensions separately, limiting understanding of their integrated developmental effects in emerging economies. This study develops an integrated ‘Economy–Environment–Employment (E3)’ analytical framework to evaluate the long-term implications of India’s BioE3 (Biotechnology for Economy, Environment, and Employment) initiative through 2050. The analysis combines environmentally extended input–output modelling, dynamic scenario simulations, and a composite E3 transition index to compare baseline, policy-driven, and accelerated transformation pathways. The framework captures how inter-sectoral economic interactions influence environmental emissions and employment restructuring under alternative policy scenarios. The BioE3 architecture examined includes biomanufacturing clusters, bio-foundries, biotechnology innovation hubs, circular bioresource systems, targeted research and development incentives, and biotechnology-oriented skill-development programmes. Results indicate that the accelerated BioE3 pathway significantly expands bio-based manufacturing and knowledge-intensive services while reducing carbon intensity by approximately 42% relative to the baseline scenario by 2050. Simultaneously, the share of high-skilled employment rises from 18% to nearly 29%, indicating a transition toward innovation-intensive production systems. The findings further demonstrate that early investments in biotechnology infrastructure and innovation ecosystems generate cumulative and mutually reinforcing economic, environmental, and employment benefits. Nevertheless, the scale and spatial distribution of these gains depend on institutional coordination, regionally differentiated implementation, and sustained human-capital development. The study contributes a policy-oriented framework for assessing bioeconomic structural transformation in emerging economies.