The Impact of Weather Conditions on the Number of Road Accidents in England

Authors

  • Piotr Gorzelańczyk *

    Department of Transport, Stanislaw Staszic State University of Applied Sciences in Pila, Pila 64-920, Poland
  • Dominique Trual Molintas

    PATTS College of Aeronautics, Benguet State University, Cordillera 2613, Philippines

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.55121/tdr.v3i2.875

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between average monthly surface temperature and road traffic accidents in England, across ten years. Using (n = 120) on collisions, casualties, and average surface temperature, we applied descriptive statistics, Pearson and Spearman correlations, simple linear regressions, and a multivariate regression controlling for monthly seasonality. Explicitly, surface temperature is treated as a representative indicator of broader environmental influences on accident occurrence, indicative of seasonal mobility patterns. Driver behaviour, vehicle condition, and traffic management are the controllable factors; and seasonal weather conditions and surface temperature are the uncontrollable factors. A positive correlation between temperature and both the number of collisions (r = 0.288, p = 0.0014) and casualties (r = 0.343, p = 0.0001) is defined. In simple linear regression, a 1 °C increase in temperature was associated with approximately +5 collisions and +10 casualties per month. However, when controlling for seasonality through month dummy variables, the effect of temperature became statistically insignificant (β = −1.91, p = 0.764). This suggests that seasonal traffic patterns wields greater influence; rather than temperature itself. Moreover, the correlation between temperature and collisions was considerably stronger after 2020 period (r = 0.578) compared to 2014–2019 (r = 0.269), potentially reflecting alterations in mobility patterns due COVID-19 pandemic. In conclusion: Although in simple models a relationship is apparent with traffic accidents; this study finds temperature does not emerge as an independent predictor in contrary seasonality. Future research should incorporate traffic exposure, additional meteorological variables and nonlinear modelling approaches.

Keywords:

Traffic Accident, Road Collision, Road Traffic Safety (RTS), Weather Conditions

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